Daily tips

Timeline

Today’s matches that have tips, by hour. Each one shows which of our engines point somewhere. When several engines point to the same result the match gets an “agree” mark. That is usually a stronger signal than a single tip, but the engines use the same statistics, so they are not independent opinions.

Fixtures

All of today’s matches in our leagues with prices: the best 1X2 odds among the bookmakers (below them the chance the odds imply once the margin is removed), Over/Under 2.5 and both teams to score. The green price is the favourite of the match. Click a match to see form, averages and our lines; matches with our tips show how many.

Prices are collected in the morning and missing ones are checked every hour; they may change before kick-off. Odds are the bookmaker’s price, not our opinion: check the current offer before you bet. Gamble responsibly, 18+.

Underdogs

The outsiders of today’s matches at odds of 3.00 or more, ranked by the edge our model sees over the bookmaker’s price. The bookmaker’s chance is its odds without the margin. We do not trust our model more than the market: the chance shown is mostly the market, with a dash of the model. Checked on real matches: the outsiders win as often as the market says, so these tips have no proven edge.

Outsiders win rarely: even well-priced tips at odds of 6.00 lose five times out of six, so long losing runs are normal and call for small stakes. In our test on more than a thousand real matches outsiders won as often as the odds implied and the return was negative, so a good result over a few weeks is largely luck at high odds.

Home wins

The ten home teams of today with the best chance of winning (tip “1”). We work out the chance from goals: how many the home team scores and concedes at home, how many the visitor scores and concedes away (averages pulled towards the league average), adjusted for the recent form of both teams, and then with two Poisson distributions. A home winning run only feeds the description, not the ranking. The fair odds are the lowest odds at which the tip is still worth taking.

Favourites lose or draw more often than it seems: even at a 70% chance it happens in one match out of three. Bookmakers know the same statistics, so low odds on a favourite usually match its chance.

Away wins

The ten visiting teams of today with the best chance of winning (tip “2”). We work out the chance from goals: how many each team scores and concedes (averages pulled towards the league average), adjusted for recent form, with two Poisson distributions. Away wins are rarer, so even the best away favourites usually have a chance of around 40–50%. The fair odds are the lowest odds at which the tip is still worth taking.

Visitors win one match in three on average, and the model is worse at telling good away favourites from average ones.

Draw no bet

Draw no bet (DNB): the bet wins when the chosen team wins, the bookmaker returns the stake on a draw, and it loses when the other team wins. We work out the chance with the same goal model as the home and away wins: the chance of a win divided by the chance that the match does not end in a draw. From each match we take the better side and show the ten strongest. The fair odds are the lowest odds at which the tip is still worth taking.

Draw no bet odds are lower than plain win odds, because a draw does not lose. Bookmakers know the same statistics, so low odds on a favourite usually match its chance.

Track record of our tips

How each of our tabs would have done over the last 21 days: for every day we take the tips calculated only from matches played earlier and settle them with the real result. Next to the hits we show what we estimated, so you can see whether the model is honest.

Tape of the day

The ten tips of the day with the highest chance of landing, picked from all of our tabs (goals and BTTS, cards, corners, unbeaten, black run). From each match we take one tip, the most likely one. “Surest” here means “most likely”, not certain: even a tip with an 80% chance loses one time in five. A high chance goes with low odds, so it is not the same as a profitable bet.

The chance is our estimate based on averages and runs, not a promise. When you pick the best from several hundred tips a day it is easy to overrate the ones that look good by accident, so we show the track record of the last days next to it.

Black run

The teams playing today with the longest run of matches without a win (draws and defeats in a row, counting back from the last match). The tip is “will not win”: double chance X2 when the home team is in crisis, or 1X when the visitor is. The list is ordered by the length of the run. We estimate the chance separately, from how rarely the team wins and how rarely its opponent loses. The fair odds are the lowest odds at which the tip is still worth taking.

A black run does not mean the next match will be lost too: teams in crisis often break out of it, and bookmakers know these runs and price them in. Treat it as one signal, not a sure thing.

Draw-prone

Today’s matches in which a draw is the most likely. We work out the chance from how often both teams draw (last 10 matches, pulled towards the league average) and raise it when their form is close and they play low-scoring matches. Draws in head-to-head matches are shown as extra evidence. A draw happens in about one match in four, so even the best tips fail more often than they land. The fair odds are the lowest odds at which the tip is still worth taking.

A tendency to draw is a weak signal: in football chance decides a great deal. That is why the chance shown is pulled strongly towards the league average.

Unbeaten

The teams playing today with the longest run of matches without a defeat (wins and draws in a row, counting back from the last match). The tip is “will not lose”: double chance 1X for the home team or X2 for the visitor. The list is ordered by the length of the run. We estimate the chance separately, from how rarely the team loses and how rarely its opponent wins. The fair odds are the lowest odds that are still worth taking: at lower odds at the bookmaker the tip makes no sense.

An unbeaten run describes the past and does not guarantee a result: the opponents play too, and bookmakers know the same runs and price them in. At the low odds of 1X/X2 the edge is often small.

Our tip for every match

For every match: the recommended event, its chance and the odds. A green border marks a tip that meets all the requirements. Click a match to see the form, recent results and all lines.