Fouls
Over 0.5 fouls
Aston Villa – Viking · 19:00Model chance
61%Expected
1.03API odds
2.00Last 5 avg 0.64
Last 10 avg 0.61
Opponent adjustment +6.9%
Replacement effect +20.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +22.7%
PLAYER PROPS · EV+
Player Props
The engine blends the last 5 and 10 appearances, venue, opponent profile, absences and official lineups. Value is shown only against an actual API price.
No picks meet the data and model requirements today.
Goals / assists
Over 0.5 goals or assists
Real Madrid – RB Leipzig · 19:00Model chance
40%Expected
0.53API odds
3.10Last 5 avg 1.18
Last 10 avg 0.84
Opponent adjustment -9.7%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +22.5%
Fouls
Over 0.5 fouls
Aston Villa – Viking · 19:00Model chance
81%Expected
2.22API odds
1.50Last 5 avg 1.80
Last 10 avg 1.70
Opponent adjustment +29.5%
Replacement effect +17.3%
Profile and statistics →Value +21.5%
Fouls
Over 0.5 fouls
Real Madrid – RB Leipzig · 19:00Model chance
61%Expected
0.90API odds
2.00Last 5 avg 0.40
Last 10 avg 0.81
Opponent adjustment -0.3%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +21.2%
Goals / assists
Over 0.5 goals or assists
Aston Villa – Viking · 19:00Model chance
52%Expected
0.82API odds
2.30Last 5 avg 1.31
Last 10 avg 1.15
Opponent adjustment -3.8%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +20.5%
Fouls
Over 0.5 fouls
Real Betis – Feyenoord · 19:00Model chance
80%Expected
1.96API odds
1.50Last 5 avg 2.68
Last 10 avg 2.19
Opponent adjustment +2.2%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +19.7%
Goals / assists
Over 0.5 goals or assists
Sporting CP – Lask Linz · 19:00Model chance
54%Expected
0.87API odds
2.20Last 5 avg 1.23
Last 10 avg 1.39
Opponent adjustment +6.0%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +19.6%
Goals / assists
Over 0.5 goals
Real Betis – Feyenoord · 19:00Model chance
38%Expected
0.68API odds
3.10Last 5 avg 1.41
Last 10 avg 0.97
Opponent adjustment +3.9%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +18.9%
Goals / assists
Over 0.5 goals or assists
Real Betis – Feyenoord · 19:00Model chance
46%Expected
0.62API odds
2.60Last 5 avg 1.00
Last 10 avg 0.73
Opponent adjustment +3.9%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +18.5%
Shots
Over 0.5 shots
Aston Villa – Viking · 19:00Model chance
62%Expected
1.05API odds
1.91Last 5 avg 1.23
Last 10 avg 0.88
Opponent adjustment +7.6%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +18.2%
On target
Over 0.5 shots on target
Levante – Athletic Club · 18:00Model chance
64%Expected
1.21API odds
1.83Last 5 avg 1.89
Last 10 avg 1.45
Opponent adjustment -8.3%
Replacement effect +15.5%
Profile and statistics →Value +17.3%
Shots
Over 2.5 shots
Real Betis – Feyenoord · 19:00Model chance
49%Expected
3.05API odds
2.38Last 5 avg 4.23
Last 10 avg 3.23
Opponent adjustment +5.6%
Replacement effect +20.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +16.8%
Shots
Over 0.5 shots
Real Madrid – RB Leipzig · 19:00Model chance
55%Expected
0.94API odds
2.10Last 5 avg 1.20
Last 10 avg 1.25
Opponent adjustment +4.3%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +15.3%
Goals / assists
Over 0.5 goals
Real Madrid – RB Leipzig · 19:00Model chance
28%Expected
0.40API odds
4.00Last 5 avg 1.07
Last 10 avg 0.71
Opponent adjustment -9.7%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +13.8%
Shots
Over 0.5 shots
Sporting CP – Lask Linz · 19:00Model chance
59%Expected
1.12API odds
1.91Last 5 avg 1.79
Last 10 avg 1.51
Opponent adjustment -6.3%
Replacement effect +4.9%
Profile and statistics →Value +12.8%
Goals / assists
Over 0.5 goals or assists
Bayern München – Arsenal · 19:00Model chance
67%Expected
1.17API odds
1.67Last 5 avg 2.44
Last 10 avg 1.87
Opponent adjustment -13.4%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +12.7%
On target
Over 0.5 shots on target
Sporting CP – Lask Linz · 19:00Model chance
32%Expected
0.38API odds
3.50Last 5 avg 0.20
Last 10 avg 0.20
Opponent adjustment -4.0%
Replacement effect +20.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +12.6%
Goals / assists
Over 0.5 goals or assists
Como – Manchester United · 16:45Model chance
20%Expected
0.23API odds
5.50Last 5 avg 0.41
Last 10 avg 0.23
Opponent adjustment -6.3%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +12.4%
Goals / assists
Over 0.5 goals
Sporting CP – Lask Linz · 19:00Model chance
20%Expected
0.33API odds
5.50Last 5 avg 0.95
Last 10 avg 0.78
Opponent adjustment -13.4%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +8.5%
Shots
Over 0.5 shots
Club Brugge KV – Lens · 19:00Model chance
69%Expected
1.35API odds
1.50Last 5 avg 1.87
Last 10 avg 1.75
Opponent adjustment -1.2%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →Value +3.6%
Fouls
Over 0.5 fouls
Levante – Athletic Club · 18:00Model chance
73%Expected
1.44Model odds
1.36Last 5 avg 1.20
Last 10 avg 1.01
Opponent adjustment +1.9%
Replacement effect +20.0%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
Fouls
Over 0.5 fouls
Levante – Athletic Club · 18:00Model chance
69%Expected
1.34Model odds
1.45Last 5 avg 2.89
Last 10 avg 2.77
Opponent adjustment -18.6%
Replacement effect +3.1%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
On target
Over 0.5 shots on target
Como – Manchester United · 16:45Model chance
67%Expected
1.27Model odds
1.49Last 5 avg 1.40
Last 10 avg 1.36
Opponent adjustment -6.2%
Replacement effect +14.0%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
Fouls
Over 0.5 fouls
Lille – Galatasaray · 16:45Model chance
64%Expected
1.09Model odds
1.57Last 5 avg 1.27
Last 10 avg 1.31
Opponent adjustment +1.2%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
Shots
Over 0.5 shots
Levante – Athletic Club · 18:00Model chance
63%Expected
1.30Model odds
1.58Last 5 avg 2.09
Last 10 avg 1.67
Opponent adjustment -7.4%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
Shots
Over 1.5 shots
Como – Manchester United · 16:45Model chance
63%Expected
2.77Model odds
1.59Last 5 avg 4.38
Last 10 avg 3.48
Opponent adjustment -4.6%
Replacement effect +11.1%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
On target
Over 0.5 shots on target
Club Brugge KV – Lens · 19:00Model chance
61%Expected
1.20Model odds
1.64Last 5 avg 1.48
Last 10 avg 1.83
Opponent adjustment +1.4%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
On target
Over 0.5 shots on target
Como – Manchester United · 16:45Model chance
59%Expected
1.11Model odds
1.70Last 5 avg 1.75
Last 10 avg 1.32
Opponent adjustment -5.4%
Replacement effect +10.9%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
Shots
Over 0.5 shots
Lille – Galatasaray · 16:45Model chance
58%Expected
0.90Model odds
1.74Last 5 avg 0.51
Last 10 avg 1.20
Opponent adjustment +7.9%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
Fouls
Over 0.5 fouls
Lille – Galatasaray · 16:45Model chance
56%Expected
0.92Model odds
1.78Last 5 avg 1.55
Last 10 avg 1.41
Opponent adjustment +1.2%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
On target
Over 0.5 shots on target
Bayern München – Arsenal · 19:00Model chance
51%Expected
0.86Model odds
1.95Last 5 avg 1.44
Last 10 avg 1.55
Opponent adjustment -13.4%
Replacement effect +9.8%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
Shots
Over 0.5 shots
Bayern München – Arsenal · 19:00Model chance
50%Expected
0.66Model odds
2.02Last 5 avg 0.50
Last 10 avg 0.80
Opponent adjustment -13.4%
Replacement effect +9.0%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
Fouls
Over 0.5 fouls
Bayern München – Arsenal · 19:00Model chance
50%Expected
0.64Model odds
2.02Last 5 avg 0.75
Last 10 avg 0.40
Opponent adjustment -15.0%
Replacement effect +6.6%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
On target
Over 0.5 shots on target
Lille – Galatasaray · 16:45Model chance
46%Expected
0.60Model odds
2.20Last 5 avg 0.26
Last 10 avg 0.60
Opponent adjustment -3.7%
Replacement effect +20.0%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
On target
Over 0.5 shots on target
Club Brugge KV – Lens · 19:00Model chance
43%Expected
0.60Model odds
2.34Last 5 avg 0.81
Last 10 avg 0.56
Opponent adjustment +1.4%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
Goals / assists
Over 0.5 assists
Club Brugge KV – Lens · 19:00Model chance
26%Expected
0.46Model odds
3.89Last 5 avg 1.05
Last 10 avg 0.69
Opponent adjustment -13.4%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
Cards
Over 0.5 cards
Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk · 19:00Model chance
22%Expected
0.31Model odds
4.46Last 5 avg 0.40
Last 10 avg 0.46
Opponent adjustment +0.0%
Replacement effect 0.0%
Profile and statistics →1/p · no EV
Prices come from the API, with no bookmaker names. Model odds are 1/p and do not have an EV calculation. Injured, suspended and confirmed non-starting players are excluded. 15 excluded by absences or lineup.